Most futures signal services in 2026 sell confidence without evidence. They post cherry-picked screenshots, vanish when drawdowns hit, and leave traders guessing whether any real edge exists. If you have been searching for real ES NQ futures trading signal results data 2026 — not marketing copy, not hypothetical backtests, but actual timestamped trade-by-trade performance — this article breaks down exactly what TradeDisciple has generated across the E-mini S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 futures markets this year, setup by setup, with contract math you can verify yourself.
The E-mini S&P 500 (ES) and E-mini Nasdaq-100 (NQ) remain the two most liquid U.S. equity index futures by retail trader participation. Their combination of tight spreads, extended trading hours (Sunday 6 PM ET through Friday 5 PM ET), and deep order books makes them ideal for intraday signal-based strategies. Before diving into performance data, it helps to anchor the contract economics so every dollar figure below is concrete.
| Contract | Point Value | Tick Size | Tick Value | CME Initial Margin (2026) | Micro Available |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ES (E-mini S&P 500) | $50 per point | 0.25 pt | $12.50 | ~$14,300 | Yes — MES ($5/pt) |
| NQ (E-mini Nasdaq-100) | $20 per point | 0.25 pt | $5.00 | ~$21,500 | Yes — MNQ ($2/pt) |
A 10-point ES move equals $500 per contract. A 40-point NQ move equals $800 per contract. These are the numbers that matter when evaluating whether a signal's average winner justifies its average loser — and they are the exact values used in every performance calculation below.
For a deeper primer on ES-specific mechanics, see the ES futures day trading guide. For NQ nuances including its higher beta and gap behavior, the NQ futures trading strategies guide covers both.
The following data reflects all ES signals issued by TradeDisciple from January 1 through July 31, 2026. Every signal was generated pre-entry with a defined stop and up to three targets (T1, T2, T3). Win rate is calculated at T1 touch. Average R is calculated using the full distribution including stopped-out trades.
The Opening Range Breakout setup fires within the first 15 or 30 minutes of the regular session (9:30–10:00 ET or 9:30–10:30 ET range). On ES, the ORB has been the single highest-frequency setup in 2026, accounting for roughly 34% of all ES signals issued. Key metrics:
The ORB strategy pairs naturally with volume confirmation. TradeDisciple filters out low-confidence ORB signals (grade C or below) during FOMC windows and pre-market gaps exceeding 0.8%, which meaningfully reduced false breakouts in Q1 2026. See the full ORB trading strategy guide for the setup logic behind these filters.
The VWAP Reclaim fires when price dips below VWAP, finds absorption or a demand zone, then closes back above — signaling institutional re-entry. On ES in 2026:
VWR signals graded A or A+ on ES achieved a 72.1% win rate in the same period — demonstrating that signal grade materially separates performance. The VWAP trading guide explains why the reclaim confirmation step is non-negotiable for avoiding fakeouts.
Market Structure Breaks and Liquidity Sweeps are lower-frequency but higher-R setups. MSB fires when a prior significant swing high or low is decisively taken out with momentum confirmation. LSW fires after a stop-hunt wick clears a key level and price reverses sharply. 2026 ES data:
TradeDisciple fires AI-graded ES and NQ signals in real time, each with a confidence score, grade, and three profit targets. No guesswork, no lag.
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NQ carries significantly more intraday volatility than ES — average true range on NQ regularly exceeds 180–220 points on active sessions in 2026, compared to 45–65 points on ES. That amplification works both ways. The real ES NQ futures trading signal results data for 2026 shows NQ delivering larger gross point moves per winner while requiring proportionally tighter stop discipline.
| Setup | Win Rate (T1) | Avg Winner (NQ pts) | Avg Winner ($) | Avg Loser (NQ pts) | Avg Loser ($) | Avg R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ORB | 61.4% | 22.3 | $446 | 14.8 | $296 | +0.38R |
| MOM (Momentum) | 59.8% | 31.7 | $634 | 18.2 | $364 | +0.47R |
| VWR (VWAP Reclaim) | 65.1% | 18.9 | $378 | 12.4 | $248 | +0.49R |
| LSW (Liquidity Sweep) | 60.9% | 38.4 | $768 | 22.1 | $442 | +0.54R |
| FIB (Fibonacci) | 57.2% | 27.6 | $552 | 16.9 | $338 | +0.39R |
The Momentum setup on NQ performs best when the AI confidence score is 75 or above. Below that threshold, the win rate drops to the low 50s — reinforcing why TradeDisciple's grading system exists as a filter, not just a decoration. Traders who traded only A and A+ NQ signals in the Jan–Jul 2026 window achieved a blended win rate of 68.3% versus 60.4% for all grades combined.
One of the most underappreciated setups in the 2026 NQ signal data is the Breakout Failure (BFL long / BRF short). These fire when a clean breakout above resistance or below support immediately reverses with volume — trapping the breakout buyers or sellers. Because NQ attracts algorithmic breakout hunters, failure patterns are frequent and high-R. In 2026:
Every NQ signal on TradeDisciple includes a live confidence score from 0–100 and a letter grade — so you always know which setups are worth taking and which to skip.
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One of the most actionable pieces of futures signal performance data in 2026 is the dollar gap between grade tiers. Traders who filter aggressively to A+ and A signals sacrifice frequency but dramatically improve their realized edge. Here is the 2026 blended data across both ES and NQ:
| Signal Grade | Win Rate (T1) | Avg R Per Trade | Signals Issued (Jan–Jul) | Recommended For |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A+ | 71.4% | +0.68R | 214 | Prop firm evaluations, low-frequency traders |
| A | 66.8% | +0.54R | 389 | Active day traders seeking balance |
| B+ | 61.2% | +0.41R | 471 | Higher-volume traders comfortable with variance |
| B | 55.9% | +0.28R | 318 | Context-dependent; use with confluence |
| C and below | 48.3% | -0.09R | 196 | Avoid or paper-trade only |
The C-and-below tier is included for full transparency. A negative expected value at that grade tier validates the grading model — those signals genuinely should not be traded with real capital, and the data confirms it. This is the kind of transparent signal performance reporting that separates a legitimate platform from a highlight-reel marketing account.
A large and growing segment of the traders using TradeDisciple are working through funded account evaluations with TopStep, Apex Trader Funding, FundedNext, and My Funded Futures (MFFU). The real-world futures signal results data from 2026 maps cleanly onto evaluation constraints when signal grades are used as a pre-filter. See the prop firm trading signals guide for full account-size-specific configurations.
A TopStep $150,000 Combine has a $4,500 trailing max drawdown and a $9,000 profit target. Using only A+ and A signals on ES with the built-in sizing calculator:
These numbers are realistic, not optimistic. They include losing trades — a 66.8% win rate means roughly 1 in 3 A-grade signals stops out. The sizing calculator inside TradeDisciple accounts for this automatically when you input your evaluation account parameters.
For traders comparing which futures instrument suits their evaluation best, the best futures for day trading breakdown covers ES versus NQ versus YM in the prop context. The broader futures trading signals guide explains how to integrate AI-generated signals with your own discretionary reads.
Transparency in day trading signal performance data requires a clear methodology. Here is exactly how TradeDisciple calculates and reports every number in this article and on the live dashboard:
This methodology is conservative by design. Real trader results will vary based on execution speed, slippage, and whether they trail stops to T2 and T3. Traders who trail properly on high-conviction signals have consistently outperformed the baseline metrics above during the Jan–Jul 2026 period.
Across all tracked ES and NQ setups in 2026, TradeDisciple signals have delivered a blended win rate of approximately 61–67% depending on setup type, with ORB and VWAP Reclaim setups leading. Win rate alone does not tell the full story — average R-multiple per winner versus loser determines true edge, and that data is published live on the platform dashboard.
Every signal issued by TradeDisciple is timestamped at the moment of generation with entry price, stop, and targets locked in. Results are calculated using actual market fill prices at those levels, not theoretical mid-prices. Subscribers can cross-reference each signal against their own brokerage timestamps, and the platform publishes a monthly performance digest with no trades removed.
Yes — TradeDisciple includes a built-in prop firm sizing calculator that maps position size to account balance and daily drawdown limits for TopStep, Apex, FundedNext, and MFFU rules. The signal grades (A+ through D) help prop firm candidates focus only on the highest-conviction setups, which keeps daily risk within evaluation parameters while still capturing meaningful profit.
Searching for real ES NQ futures trading signal results data in 2026 is the right instinct. Every number above is auditable, every methodology note is specific, and every losing trade is included. A blended win rate of 61–67% with positive R-multiples across the two most liquid U.S. equity futures — with grade-based filtering that pushes A+ signals above 71% — represents a genuine, measurable edge. The 7-day free trial requires no credit card, and you will have access to every live signal, every grade, every confidence score, and the full historical log from day one.
Join traders using TradeDisciple's AI-graded signals to navigate ES and NQ in 2026 — real data, real methodology, no hype. Your first 7 days are completely free.
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