GLOSSARY · RISK & PERFORMANCE

What is Expectancy?

Expectancy is the average amount you expect to make per trade over many trades.

Expectancy (in R) = win rate × average win − loss rate × average loss. Positive expectancy means the strategy makes money over time; negative means it loses no matter how disciplined you are.

EXAMPLE

55% win rate, average win 1.5R, average loss 1R: 0.55 × 1.5 − 0.45 × 1 = +0.375R per trade.

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